The Fierce Battle for Avdiivka: Experts Say Holding it for a Month Would Be a Real Success for Ukraine

Russian forces are intensifying their assault on Avdiivka, with the potential capture of the city likely to mark the Kremlin's first significant military success this year. Military experts predict that in 2024, Russia and Ukraine will be engaged in a war of attrition, with Avdiivka serving as a prime example. What may be a significant setback for Russia could prove catastrophic for Ukraine, according to specialists.

Since October, Russia has launched relentless ground and aerial attacks on Avdiivka, a city near the occupied Donetsk, which once boasted around 30,000 residents and has become the focal point of the Russian offensive.

"More than half of the daily clashes on the front line occur in the Avdiivka area," explained Israeli military analyst David Gendelman in an interview with The Moscow Times.

The ferocious battles for Avdiivka are often compared to last year's Battle of Bachmut, where Russian forces made incremental gains at substantial costs. Russian assaults on the city in the Donetsk Oblast are more intense than in any other area along the front line.

"If Ukraine manages to hold its ground for another month, it will be a genuine success"

Following the onset of the offensive in early October, Russians made significant advances, especially on the southern and northern outskirts of the city. Now, the threat of a siege on Avdiivka by Russian forces looms increasingly large.

By late January, Russian troops reached the rear of Ukrainian defensive lines in the south of the city. Through underground passages, they managed to capture a wooded park. In recent days, they've also seized territory to the northeast of the city, near a crucial Ukrainian military supply route.

"The situation is critical," warned Avdiivka's military administration chief, Vitaliy Barabash.

Analysts argue that Russian forces could entirely block the main supply route for Ukrainian troops. Many observers believe that the fall of Avdiivka is only a matter of time.

"If Ukraine manages to hold its ground for another month, it will be a genuine success," said military analyst Dmitriy Kuznets.

According to Israeli military analyst David Gendelman, the course of the battles depends on how many reserves Ukrainian command allocates for the defense of the city.

War of Attrition

According to military analysts, in 2024, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will evolve into a war of attrition. The costly battle for Avdiivka exemplifies these actions, with substantial losses on both sides.

Experts believe that neither side is likely to achieve significant territorial gains this year.

Ukraine's next offensive largely depends on long-term military support from Western allies. Without American assistance, it remains uncertain how long Kyiv's forces can hold back the Russian onslaught.